Stemming from the human desire to find balance in the world, when confronted with major events, people often feel dissatisfied with simple or mundane explanations. For instance, the assassination of a charismatic leader might prompt individuals to reject the possibility of a lone gunman, favoring an elaborate conspiracy instead. This bias often operates subconsciously, shaping our perceptions of cause-and-effect relationships.
Proportionality bias works because humans are naturally inclined to seek patterns and order in a chaotic world. Large events evoke strong emotional reactions, which heighten our need to find meaningful explanations. The idea that a small or random cause could lead to a major outcome creates discomfort. Proportionality bias helps reduce the uncertainty and allows us to feel more in control, as it makes the world seem more predictable and less random.
Proportionality bias is commonly exploited in conspiracy theories. For example, proponents of them often dismiss simple explanations for significant events—like Covid-19 originating at a wet market in Wuhan, China. Instead they gravitate towards plots involving bioweapons or coordinated government efforts to impose mass surveillance by embedding microchips in vaccines. To some, these explanations feel more proportionate to the pandemic’s devastating global impact, offering a sense of understanding and control over an otherwise overwhelming and chaotic situation.
